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Raila party faces major test in election

Details

Published on Tuesday, 25 May 2010 17:14

The forthcoming South Mugirango by-election is promising to be a major test for ODM as forces opposed to the party leader Raila Odinga coalesce around former MP Omingo Magara in a bid to deny the party the seat and reduce the Prime Minister’s political fortunes.

The campaign in the lead up to the June 10 by-election is characterised by the ODM/PNU rivalry that informed the 2007 General Election.

Anti-Odinga forces, who have rallied their troops for Mr Magara, include Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka, Higher Education minister William Ruto, Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and Education minister Sam Ongeri, who comes from the region.

Then there is the Simeon Nyachae factor. Though his party Ford-People has sponsored Mr Manson Nyamweya, Mr Nyachae, a big cheese in Gusii politics, has shown little enthusiasm towards the candidate and is perceived to be sympathetic to Mr Magara, who is seeking re-election on a PDP ticket.

That there is no love lost between the PM and Mr Nyachae is no secret. The former Finance minister has never forgiven Mr Odinga for abandoning him in favour of President Kibaki in the run up to the 2002 elections.

In a sense, the constituency known for its flourishing soapstone industry will serve as a test ground for the 2012 elections. And the stakes are higher for the Prime Minister.

Loss of the seat at a time when political numbers matter in Parliament will most certainly be a bitter pill for Mr Odinga and his party to swallow.

That is why he is expected to use every trick in the book to ensure ODM candidate, Ibrahim Ochoi, wins the seat. This would give him an opportunity to flaunt his political stamina before opponents.

Mr Musyoka, Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto, who are believed to be gearing up to run for president, will also be testing their strength against the man they are preparing to face in the 2012 contest.

Mr Odinga will also be keen to send a message to dissident voices in the party. Mr Magara, the former ODM treasurer, who lost the seat through a court petition, decamped to little-known PDP following a frosty relationship with Mr Odinga.

Mr Magara is aware he faces Mr Odinga’s forces. The question is: does he have the muscle to withstand an onslaught by the Premier?

“Mine is like the biblical contest between David and Goliath. I am sure, with the political support I have across the board, I will emerge the winner,” Mr Magara told the Sunday Nation. “I am busy on the ground campaigning to ensure that Mr Odinga does not impose his brother on the people of South Mugirango.”

The former Trade assistant minister, who was the ODM point man in the region, accuses Mr Odinga of using and dumping him. He has never forgiven Mr Odinga for not appointing him to a Cabinet position instead of Mr Chris Obure, the Public Works minister, whom he considers “latecomer” in ODM.

There has been a supremacy battle between Mr Obure, Mr Magara and Prof Ongeri, which is likely to play out during the campaigns.

Assistant ministers James Gesami, Richard Onyonka, and MPs Charles Onyancha, (Bonchari) and Simon Ogari (Bomachoge) will team up with Mr Obure.

On Mr Magara’s side will be assistant minister Moriasi Ombui, and MPs Dr Robert Monda (Nyaribari Chache) and Walter Nyambati (Kitutu Masaba).

The Magara campaign has been keen to project Mr Ochoi as an outsider. But the ODM candidate dismissed the Magara team as one that has run out of ideas.

“I was born and bred in South Migirango,” he said. Mr Ochoi downplayed the influence of the PNU coalition honchos.

Mr Musyoka’s ODM-Kenya party is not fielding a candidate and Mr Kenyatta, the Kanu chairman, did not sign party candidate’s nomination papers.

But Mr Magara’s association with Mr Ruto is tricky. Some Abagusii who were kicked out of Rift Valley during the post-election violence are uncomfortable with the Ruto link.

Mr Ruto has moved to court to expunge his name from a report which alleges that he was a key sponsor of the violence.

Successful campaigns

Mr Ochoi is buoyed by the support of the ODM top leadership, who are scheduled to camp there in the last two weeks of the campaign.

The team will be led by Mr Obure, who spearheaded successful campaigns for the party during the Bomachoge by-election last year. There are 41,000 registered voters in the constituency.

It is turning out to be a three-horse race between Mr Ochoi, Mr Magara and Manson Nyamweya.

Clannism is also likely to play a role in determining the outcome of the by-election. The main clans in the constituency are Abasinange, Abagetenga and Abatabori. Mr Magara belongs to the Bosinange clan, which has the largest number of registered voters at 8,955.