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South Mugirango voters all set to pick leader

Details

Published on Tuesday, 08 June 2010 00:03

With only a day to the South Mugirango by-election, campaigns have hit fever pitch with various political groups taking part in a cocktail of activities.

The by-election has presented a platform for the 2012 General Election test-run, with Prime Minister Raila Odinga of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) leading one side while those opposed to him and oscillate around Triple K Alliance are on the other.

Omingo Magara

Ibrahim Ochoi

Manson Oyongo

ODM flag bearer Ibrahim Ochoi, Omingo Magara (PDP), Manson Oyongo (Ford-People), John Ondora (Kanu), Abaga Sagero (National Vision Party of Kenya), Robert Mbaka (Safina), Master Ondara (KSC), Ezekiel Okengo (Narc-Kenya), Rashid Miyonga (PPK), Joash Kengere (LPK) and Ezekiel Kemwa (Kenda) are in the Thursday race.

All contestants and their supporters have exhibited a cautious approach, avoiding referendum politics throughout the campaign period. This may have been because campaigners were not sure which side of the divide most voters belong to.

Strategy for 2012

The falling out in Kanu leadership has also been replayed after national chairman Uhuru Kenyatta failed to sign the nomination papers of Ondora and Education Minister Sam Ongeri differed with Secretary General Nick Salat over party candidate for the by-election.

Again, the by-election has provided the proponents of the Triple K alliance an opportunity to coalesce and probably spring a surprise on Raila, after he outdid them on the new constitutional dispensation.

Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka, Uhuru who is also Deputy Prime Minister, and Higher Education Minister William Ruto are supporting Magara’s re-election and would want to use the by-election as a platform to roll out their strategy for the 2012 General Election.

Poor state of the roads, collapsed infrastructure, poverty, clan politics and history will be defining factors in the by-election.

Raila has rallied all the ODM brigades, including Cabinet ministers Henry Kosgey, Franklin Bett, Charity Ngilu, James Orengo, Anyang’ Nyong’o, Chris Obure and several assistant ministers and MPs to undertake a high profile campaign for Ochoi.

Similarly, Kanu has not been left out with national vice-chairman Gideon Moi and Salat expected to campaign for Ondora.

Former powerful minister Nicholas Biwott has also been in the constituency to campaign for the party’s candidate.

Kisii is a region where voters are not known to be followers of any one political party as demonstrated in the last General Election, and the by-election outcome will greatly be determined by individual contestants’ campaign strategy.

No wonder in the disputed 2007 polls, the ten local MPs were elected on six different political parties with ODM taking a lion’s share of four seats. It was only in 2002 when all the ten legislators were elected on a Ford-People ticket under Simeon Nyachae’s leadership, a first one in Gusii political history.

Analysts are in agreement that personal attributes, and in some constituencies the clan factor, informed the electorate when voting in the MPs on various parties rather than candidates’ political party affiliations.

History and fate

Magara will have to contend with history and fate that saw him elected to Parliament following the death of his elder brother in a by-election. He could lose the seat the same way.

Oyongo had a sweet moment when his petition knocked Magara from the party, but it would be difficult if the same lady luck would smile on him a second time and see him to Parliament.

Recently, Prof Nyong’o wrote to the Political Parties Registrar Lucy Ndung’u raising concern that PNU allied Cabinet ministers were openly campaigning for a candidate in a different party, a violation of the Political Parties Act.

Apparently, ODM was unhappy that Magara was getting undue support from the coalition partner.

After receiving all the support from PNU big wigs including President Kibaki, Kalonzo and a host of Cabinet ministers led by Prof Ongeri, Magara will only have himself to blame if he fails to capture the seat.

But whether outside influence will inform the polls remains to be tested as the electorate casts their vote.

Other factors that will feature and may influence the outcome of the polls include Nyachae’s hands in the electioneering process.

Though out of active politics, Nyachae remains a respected personality in the region and whoever he might be seen to support has an added advantage.

Voting pattern

Both Magara and Oyongo have claimed Nyachae was supporting their candidature. However, party Secretary General Henry Obwocha says Nyachae was fully behind their candidate.

Clan factors can’t be written off since pundits opine that whoever masters the voting patterns right will definitely have an edge over his rivals.

This is given impetus with accusations by a section of candidates that some aspirants have been planted in their strongholds to water down their chances of clinching the seat.

"All those who are in the race are your sons. They grew up here, you know them and you have their scorecards. Let not external forces interfere with your choice," said James Kenani, Ford-People’s director of elections.

South Mugirango has no essential infrastructure and social amenities and yet there has been political leadership and enough resources from the Government through programmes like Constituency Development Fund.

Going by what is on the ground, South Mugirango has no single tarmac road, it lacks quality schools and even hospitals.

Formidable contestant

Roads are impassable, and campaigns have been marred by cars being stuck in muddy sections for several hours, a scenario witnessed when the candidates were handing in their papers at Nyamarambe.

Ochoi, who came second in the nullified elections, stands out as a formidable contestant given locals view him as the one who scared Magara out of ODM. He is also a grassroots politician.

It is clear the by-election is not going to be a political party contest. People are going to vote along personal abilities to deliver and the clan factor can’t be ignored as well," said Philemon Ochwangi, a lawyer who has been following events on the ground.

The biggest of the four clans, Bogetenga with about 25,000 voters, has two candidates —Oyongo who hails from the Nyaramba sub-clan with 8,000 votes and Ochoi of Nyataro with an estimated 7,000 voters.

Rwora has about 4,000 voters leaving the Bomonyama sub-clan without a candidate, but with a voting strength of 6,000 votes.

Solid bloc

Botabori, the second populous clan, is credited with a solid voting bloc of about 9,000 votes and has Miyonga, Okengo and Sagero.

Bosinange, where Magara belongs to, commands voting power of 16,000 votes while the forth clan, Boige with 6,000 registered voters, has no candidate.

Traditionally, the voting patterns are distinctively divided into two with Abatabori voting together with Abasinange and Abaige while Abagetenga form their own bloc.

Notably, Nyaramba and Nyataro sub clans of Bogetenga are known to cast their vote in the middle on either side of the two blocs.

There also exists historical animosity pitying Abaige and Abatabori against Omonyaramba. Given a choice, Abatabori and Abaige prefer supporting Omosinange, a factor Magara has been exploiting to win the seat.