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Nyachae's Men And The Boon They Bring
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- Published on Sunday, 22 July 2007 21:36
He has been picking his men carefully and leaving no doubt that his is a serious mission.
Hurdles posed by the parallel National Alliance for Change, Nac, notwithstanding, Nyachae has shown signals that he is out to form a formidable front before the General Election.
The argument has been variously voiced that had the Opposition been united this time round, they would stand the best chance of countering the Kanu-NDP alliance.
But, as Paul Muite presents in an interview elsewhere on these pages, there are glaring hindrances to be addressed first before the Nac can hope to attract universal Opposition support. So in the end it might just be like the last two elections, of strong Opposition candidates but none strong enough to tilt the Kanu juggernaut.
To consolidate his Opposition stable, Nyachae has moved out of his Kisii backyard to reach out to other places, especially to Central and North Eastern Provinces. The former is where he made his civil service career as a PC and he could be hoping to tap nostalgia votes. It should be remembered that Ford-P, the party he melted his hefty image into, has its roots in Central Province - being an off-shoot of the formerly mighty Ford-Asili.
It could arguably be concluded that in his forays to reach out, Nyachae has so far ended up with a team on his side that includes some who can bring him big political credit and others who could be heavy baggage to carry along.
The coalition with Safina is Nyachae's first bet to bring him political capital.
With Safina come Paul Muite who has been with the party since its forceful pre-1997 days when it boasted such heavy weights as Dr Richard Leakey and shook Kanu to opposing its registration.
Speaking in terms of votes, Nyachae will know that in Muite he has a man who is still popular in his populous Kabete constituency, despite the problems he has faced in the past four years which have diminished his former clout as a presidential hopeful.
But Nyachae will also likely have studied the background to know that, while he can count on Muite for image expansion, he might not count on him much in terms of votes. Kabete constituency, which combines a cosmopolitan streak with a large Kikuyu community population, has a tendency to separate the Muite and the presidential votes clearly.
In 1992, when Muite failed to join the party of choice in his constituency, Ford-Asili, and remained with Ford-Kenya, the constituents gave him the highest parliamentary tally in the country, 48,000, but gave his presidential candidate, Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, only 3,000 votes. They gave Matiba of Ford-Asili 46,000 votes. In 1997 they gave Muite, then in Safina, which had no presidential candidate, 48,000 votes and gave Mwai Kibaki in DP 39,000 votes.
However, Nyachae can count on tapping from the Safina reputation of 1997. Of all the political parties that contested the election, it was the only one that did not rely on any tribal region to get votes since it did not field a presidential candidate. But a lot of water has since gone under the bridge and it remains to be seen if the ideals that propelled the party that draws its name from Noah's Ark still remain afloat.
From Safina as well, Nyachae has teamed with former Lagdera MP Farah Maalim who is his party's national chairman. The MP comes from a constituency which is scarce in votes but from a vast region, North-Eastern Province, which is usually an optional hunting ground for various parties looking for votes. The province so far remains unexplored in terms of producing a political front of its own. It has largely been a Kanu zone and there is no strong indication it could vote otherwise but it has been argued for long that any party that can be seen to work from within the province might eat into Kanu's ground.
Nyachae could hope that, Safina, the only Opposition party to win a seat in the province in 1997, that of Fafi won by Baree Shill, has a foothold that could be activated by Farah Maalim. The latter, however, lost his Lagdera seat to Mohammed Shidiye of Kanu.
Nyachae showed he wanted to do business with Maalim and North Eastern when he brought him to chair a meeting at Safari Park in November to launch Nyachae's presidential "Vision". In that document Nyachae addressed vulnerable sections of society and elaborated on his vision of poverty eradication. That is the kind of talk that woos North Eastern.
Elsewhere, in Rift Valley, Nyachae has brought to his side Kanu rebel Kipkalia Kones a man who commands a large following in his Bomet constituency where he is fondly referred to as 'Kiko'. Kones was not opposed in the last election in a constituency which has 55,000 registered voters.
Nyachae will have to keep his fingers crossed that he can keep Kones in his camp till election time. Kones had earlier made another sojourn in rebel ranks before the 1997 election from where he was wooed back by Kanu. There was talk in November, when Cyrus Jirongo and Uhuru Kenyatta were appointed to the Cabinet, that Kones was being wooed by high level contacts to re-think his renegade status. Kanu must know too well that it could be risky to attempt to field anyone against Kones in Bomet and might bow to him for the second time.
At least, while he lasts in one political camp, Kones is known to expend unbridled energy and political show of force. And if he stays in the Ford-People axis, Kanu might have double reason to fear because his compatriot, Buret's Paul Sang, has been stepping in line with Kones. Sang was sacked by President Moi as an assistant minister last month, for protesting the demolition of kiosks in Sotik.
He is as outspoken as Kones and brought Kanu his seat with 31,000 votes against 2,000 for his closest challenger. Such are two men who Nyachae will obviously yearn to keep in the heart of Kanu zones in Rift-Valley.
Elsewhere, in Luo Nyanza, Nyachae might not hope to make a lot of political capital, given the force of the Kanu-NDP flotilla, but it might not stop him from placing one foot there. Reliable information has it that Ford-People will be the next stop for SDP's Anyang Nyong'o.
However, Nyong'o, who did not bring much into the SDP basket in 1997, might remain a respectable name to have on the officials' list but not with a respectable bundle of votes. He got only 4,000 votes against NDP's Ochoro Ayoki's 13,000 and Kanu's Ndolo Ayah's 6,000 for the Kisumu Rural seat.
The latest entry into Ford-People, Gitobu Imanyara, the MP for Central Imenti, has started as a baggage for Nyachae rather than an asset owing to his controversy-ridden political past.
Imanyara has a weak background having been the only one among the fiery team of Opposition Young Turks of 1992 to fail to win his seat at the first a attempt. Still in Ford-Kenya then, he lost his seat to Kanu's former Cabinet minister Kirugi M'Mukindia.
Imanyara won the seat comfortably with 27,000 votes against M'Mukindia's 12,000 in 1997, but he brought ill-repute upon himself when he started cavorting with Kanu.
He did not find peace in Kanu and the affair did not last long. Last year, there were demonstrations in Meru by Kanu activists against him for allegedly tampering with their affairs.
Nyachae has adopted him after Imanyara left Ford-K in a huff. He moved over to Nyachae claiming to bring to Ford-People support from the 'Greater Meru' region. But sources on the ground, including members of the Central Imenti Welfare Association, who denounced him on Tuesday, say Imanyara has gone out on a limb to leave Ford-K and might kiss his seat good-bye. Of the nine Meru constituencies, Kanu has two, Ford-K has one while DP holds the rest. Nyachae might be interested to draw another re-entry route in to the area rather than through Central Imenti.
Another point Nyachae might have to re-think is the strength of Kimani wa Nyoike, the Ford-People chairman who gave him the party to perch on. Wa Nyoike, whose bid for the presidency in 1997, failed to win even the Kipipiri parliamentary seat, scoring 7,000 to Mwangi Githiomi's 13,000. Nationally he got 1,000 votes more but he has remained without lustre that can equal his days as a powerful Kanu operative in Nyandarwa in the early 1980s.
Thus far Nyachae has gone to build his coalition about him but observers say he has a lot of ground to cover before he can bring his chickens home to roost in 2002
