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The Sudden Rise of Simeon Nyachae
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- Published on Friday, 20 July 2007 08:03
One analyst, for example, wrote that the only thing that could be stated with any certainty was that Mr Nyachae would get approximately 300,000 votes from his core supporters in the three Kisii districts, and that these were not quite enough to deliver the presidency.
But over the last few weeks all this has changed. Ford People is now seen as a major political player in the evolving political equation. Many who had previously laughed at Mr Nyachae's chances of being elected president now assess him more favourably.
What has brought about this sudden change? How did Mr Nyachae do it?
First let us dispense with factors that did not bring about this near- miraculous transformation. It has little to do with Mr Paul Muite or Mr Gitobu Imanyara joining (or joining forces with) Ford People. Both these gentlemen may be formidable politicians in their own right, but if indeed their influence extends beyond their constituency boundaries, then this has yet to be revealed in electoral voting patterns.
Manifestos do not influence Kenyan voters
Nor has it anything to do with Mr Nyachae's much-hyped "Vision for Kenya," which he launched with much fanfare some months back. It is plain enough that Kenyan voters are rarely influenced by political manifestos, however well-crafted.
No, the rise of Mr Nyachae as a credible presidential candidate, and Ford People as a credible alternative to the Kanu/NDP alliance, is based on an odd fact of politics. And this is that very often, if you are not the leading candidate, the best way forward is to sit back, let your opponents make all the mistakes, and then sweep up their disgruntled supporters.
This point is particularly well illustrated by the manner in which Abraham Lincoln gained the presidency of the United States in 1860.
Because of his later fame and stature as the man who ended slavery in the US by signing the Emancipation Proclamation, casual readers of history may imagine that Lincoln was a political giant even before he gained the presidency. The truth is that he was very much in the second tier of presidential candidates: several others were far better-known nationally, and appeared at the outset to have far greater chances of winning, in that year.
But fortune was on Lincoln's side. First the Democratic Party split just before the election, and fielded three separate candidates: the sort of thing the original Ford did here in Kenya in 1992, and with similar results.
Then the Republicans (Lincoln's party) held their convention. The Republicans too were badly divided, mostly on the issue of slavery, and so most of the front-runners had not only strong supporters, but bitter opponents as well, within their party.
As one historian of those times put it, "Lincoln realised that few delegates were committed to his candidacy, but he could become the second choice of many should the front-runners falter". Lincoln himself put it even more eloquently in a letter to a friend of his: "My name is new in the field; and I suppose I am not the first choice of a very great many. Our policy, then, is to give no offence to others - leave them in a mood to come to us, if they shall be impelled to give up their first love".
Well, the strategy worked for Lincoln. He eventually won the Republican nomination on the third ballot at that convention, and went on to become one of the great presidents of the United States of America.
And it is this which has political pundits suddenly sitting up and taking notice of Mr Nyachae and the Ford-People party: the candidate and his party may not, in Lincoln's words, be "the first choice of a very great many". But it is widely expected that after the dust settles on the various attempts at uniting and subsequently selecting a single presidential candidate by the Kanu/NDP group on the one hand and the DP/NPK/Ford Kenya group on the other, the result is bound to be widespread dissatisfaction within the ranks of all those parties.
And will these dissatisfied politicians then dutifully start working to organise electoral support for those who have just vanquished them? Far from it.
Accusations of rigging in many places
They will be busy looking for an alternative vehicle for their political ambitions, ideally in the form of an existing political party.
Ford-People would then be well placed to take in those politicians who had been "impelled to give up their first love". And this could apply as easily to individual politicians, as to regional voting blocks.
An example of how this works was revealed in Coast Province in 1997. Almost all the front-runners in the province first fought for the Kanu nominations. And there were bitter accusations of rigging in many places after the results of the Kanu nominations were announced. But it did not end there.
Almost all the losers went on to seek tickets on which to run in the General Election from other parties. And at least three Kanu losers, Mr Basil Mwakiringo in Voi, Mr Karissa Maitha in Kisauni, and Mr Rashid Shakombo in Likoni, were the ultimate winners in the General Election.
