Political Blogs
Raila will be the loser in the battle for supremacy in Gusii Region with Nyachae
- Details
- Published on Wednesday, 03 October 2007 01:24
The Luo-Nyanza is the home and stronghold of the charismatic defacto leader of the ODM-K Raila Amolo Odinga, the Langata MP. The major cause of worry is the fact that the two political giants of Nyanza province belonged to two opposing camps. Nyachae is the leader of Ford People’s Party while the aggressive campaigner Raila Odinga is the defacto of the ODM-K.
During the campaign for the referendum votes for the rejected Wako Draft Constitution in November 2005 nearly 70 per cent of the Abagusii people voted overwhelmingly for the Orange Democratic Movement. This was before the movement transformed itself to a political party under the name of Orange Democratic party of Kenya. Nyachae and Raila therefore were in different camps. The Ford People party leader was firm in the Banana Camp. The Banana group supported the Wako Draft Constitution and Nyachae headed the campaign and canvassing for votes among the Abagusii while his nemesis Raila Odinga headed the Orange group in vehemently opposing the Wako Draft Constitution.
At a personal level, Raila Odinga made a lot of gains by making major inroad into hitherto closed Gusii region. The area was perceived to be the stronghold of Nyachae whose men had triumphed and swept the board, taking all the seats in ten constituencies within the three administrative districts of Nyamira, Central Kisii and Gucha in the general election of 2002.
Raila Odinga and the Orange Democratic Movement had teamed up with some well established Gusii politicians like the former Cabinet Minister Prof. Sam K. Ongeri, another former minister in the Moi’s KANU regime Chris Mogere Obure, former MP for North Mugirango Borabu Joseph Kiangoi, Richard M. Onyonka, the youthful populist politician in Kitutu Chache who is the son of the former long serving cabinet minister the late Dr. T. Zachary Onyonka, former Majoge –Bassi MP Zephania Mugunde Anyieni and the outspoken Ford People MP for South Mugirango Omingo Magara and other cliques of anti-Nyachae groups from all over Gusii land.
But soon after the referendum voting victory in favour of the Orange group, Raila Odinga made a big blunder by sidelining the likes of Prof. Ongeri in preference of Omingo Magara. Other backers of the ODM-K in Gusii region sensed the move as being meant to isolate and sideline all the established politicians in Gusii region.
Another scenario is that Raila Odinga was somehow not comfortable with the Gusii politicians who had served in the previous Moi governments like Prof. Ongeri. The majority of the Abagusii took an offence over Raila Odinga’s rejection of the populist Kisii politicians in favor of Magara. They viewed it as an attempt to impose leaders on the electorate, his usual style of imposing leaders on the voters in the neighbouring Luo-Nyanza. They came out spitting fire vehemently rejecting the move.
To be more specific and clear, it was Ongeri and his friends who inflicted damage on Nyachae in the referendum campaign and the credit should be given to those who deserves it. Magara who has since become the ODM-K and Raila Odinga’s point man in Gusii land is himself facing unpredictable future. He is facing stiff opposition in his own South Mugirango Constituency. It is unlikely that Magara would retain his seat in the forthcoming general elections. The internal wrangling as to who should be the leader of the ODM-K in Gusiiland has resuscitated hitherto dwindling Nyachae’s influence in the region, which had suffered a great deal after the referendum voting.
Political pundits says the contentious issues that threw the two long time political rivals once again in a regional turf war is apparently revolving around the control of the Abagusii votes in the forthcoming general election. In the last count, the community vote stands at 367,000 registered voters, which account for 33 per cent of the total registered voters in Nyanza Province. Registered voters in the neighbouring Luo-Nyanza is estimated at 1,000,020,00 as per the year 2002 count.
The on-going voters registration, which is aimed at registering all the youths who have obtained the age of 18 could possibly increase the Abagusii votes from 367,000 to slightly over 420,000 while the number of those registered in Luo-Nyanza, is projected to go upto 1.3 million. Observers argue that if the Abagusii community cast their votes as a block, this would give any presidential candidate a mandatory 25 percent of the total votes cast in Nyanza Province. Raila Odinga being one of the presidential hopefuls is very much aware of the importance attached to the Gusii voters.
Nyachae, however, recently dropped a bombshell when he told other political parties scrambling for the Gusii votes to keep off the area, charging that the community was firm in his Ford People party and was not ready to join other political parties. Nyachae made the remark while addressing a mammoth crowd at Kenyenya Market in Bomachoge Constituency Gucha District when he officiated in a harambee fund drive.
ODM-K supporters in Gusii region have dismissed Nyachae as a spent force saying his assertion that the Abagusii community was under lock and key in his Ford People, a party which they said has lost grip among the former supporters in the region.
Observers, however were quick in terming the ODM-K leaders’ reaction to Nyachae’s assertion as gross, miscalculation and underestimation of the true picture on the ground. Ford People still maintained an upper hand in Gusii, while ODM-K is steadily making in road into the region. But the progress is dogged by Raila Odinga’s recent anointment of Omingo Magara as the party’s torch bearer perhaps unknowingly that Magara is politically a non-entity among the Abagusii. The fast talking youthful politician is heading for political limbo in his South Mugirango constituency. Magara was supported by Nyache in 2002 even at the expense of his own brother-in-law. Reuben Oyondi who is the deputy national chairman of Ford People party.
A grueling battle is looming large between pro-Nyachae and pro-Kalonzo Musyoka groups and the rumours making the round is that anti-Raila Odinga cliques that revolves around Nyachae have recently been recruited to spearhead a well orchestrated anti Raila Odinga smear campaign to disorganize his support in the region to the advantage of Ford People ahead of the general election.
Pro-Raila ODM-K politician in Gusiiland are led by Omingo Magara (South Mugirango), Timothy Bosire (Kitutu Masaba), Chris M. Obure (Bobassi), Zephania M. Anyieni (BomaChoge), Charles Onyancha (Bonchari), Joseph Kiangoi (North Mugirango), James Ongwae (Kitutu Chache), Chris Bichage, Eng. Barnabas Ariga both from Nyaribari Chache.
The majority of these pro-Raila supporters with exception of Omingo Magera, Eng. Barnabas Ariga are well-known perennial election losers in various constituencies.
There is also Kalonzo Musyoka factor. The Mwingi South MP has enlisted the support of a team of perennial election losers in Gusii region, the likes of Dr. Ben Oonge and Lumumba Nyaberi (Bobasi), Dennis Abincha (West Mugirango), Orina Momanyi (Kitutu Chache), Dr. Nyansera Kabesa (Bonchari(Dr. Eneo Nyakiba (West Mugirango), Walter Nyambati (Kitutu Masaba), John Anunda and Fred Orora (both Nyaribari Chache).
Walter Nyambati is the Secretary General of National Labour Party, which is led by Dr. Julia Ojiambo, now partnering with the LDP and KANU in the ODM-K.
On Nyachae’s side are all the time current MPs from Gusii land. The tenth Omingo Magara (South Mugirango) has actually become the odd person in Gusii politics and he is now being considered as a “lost sheep”. Although Nyachae is openly supporting President Mwai Kibaki re-election crusade, it has been confided to us that the Nyaribai Chache MP has a soft heart for the Mwingi South MP Kalonzo Musyoka and this has contributed to Raila Odinga stands rather precariously awkward in Gusii region where the blessing of the son of the prominent senior colonial Chief Musa Nyandusi Ayacko still count heavily.
The Road Minister, one of the wealthiest Kenyan politicians is said to be heavily financing anti-Raila Odinga slanderous campaign in Gusii land. H e has never forgiven Raila Odinga following his now famous 2002 “Kibaki Tosh” declaration where the Ford People leader accuses “Agwambo” of dishonestly and short-changing him in favour of Mwai Kibaki as the joint opposition presidential candidate after the two giant Nyanza politicians had previously struck a secret deal to back up Nyachae as the region’s flag bearer.
The kind of political intrigues in Gusii land now point out that the 400,000 plus voters will be divided equally between Raila Odinga, Kalonzo Musyoka and President Mwai Kibaki with none of them showing a clear lead while “Agwambo” is likely to bag all the one million plus voters in Luo-Nyanza if the Luo voters would stop their usual apathy in their voting turn out.
It is now evidently clear that the KANU loyalists in Gusii land have already abandoned the ODM-K and headed back to the party faction led by Moi-Biwott axis following the recent naming of Prof. Ongeri to the position of first National Vice Chairman of the Biwott KANU camp.
Prof. Ongeri is a force to reckon with in KANU in Gusii land. And when Raila Odinga had chosen to dump him soon after the referendum campaign in favour of Magara, he did so as at his own peril in Gusii. Many moderate Kisii politicians have since rejoined Ongeri in Moi-Biwott led KANU and in this scenario, Raila Odinga has lost the ammunition with which he could have fought Nyachae effectively in Gusii land. He (Raila) will definitely be the loser!!
The Kisii community is currently divided into three major political camps with Kalonzo Musyoka enjoying good rapport with Nyachae has gained the sympathy of supporters in Kitutu Masaba and Mugirango West. Both constituencies are located in Nyamira District. Raila is enjoying support in Bonchari and in Kisii town and in some parts of South Mugirango and Kitutu Chache, particularly in those communities neighbouring the Luo -Nyanza.
Nyachae has the grip hold of North Mugirango Borabu, especially in the settlement scheme areas, Nyaribari Chache, Kitutu Chache, Babasi, Bomachoge, but with the rapidly dwindling support in Nyaribari Masaba due to Ongeri factor and lackluster performance of the incumbent MP Dr. Hezron Manduku.
Judging from above mentioned areas, we could see that Nyachae still has the political clout in most parts of Gusii region and as such Raila stand to lose. The whole of Gusii region has ten parliamentary constituencies namely Bonchari, Nyaribari Chache, Nyaribari Masaba and Kitutu Chache all are in Central Kisii District. Mugirango West, Kitutu Masaba, North Mugirango Borabu are in Nyamira while South Mugirango, Babasi and Bomachoge are in Gucha District. The area is the most densely populated with an average of two to three family homesteads occupying an acre of land.
But many people from the hardworking Abagusii community have settled in other districts like Molo, Kericho, Migori, Suba, Trans-Nzoia and Uasin Gishu, a few families can be found in Trans Mara and Narok Districts. Abagusii unlike their Luo neighbours are very industrious and good farmers despite of the scarcity of land the peasant are still capable of producing enough grains for domestic subsistence and also for export to the neighbouring communities for cash.
