2007 Elections
Big Three in Scramble for the Kisii Vote
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- Published on Sunday, 23 September 2007 03:44
With Luo Nyanza already decided in favour of homeboy Mr Odinga, Mr Kibaki and Mr Musyoka have to fight for the Kisii vote in their bid to gain a 25 percent share in Nyanza province. However, Mr Odinga's people are sure that this time round Kisii will vote as a bloc for change. The Odinga campaign team is being spearheaded by South Mugirango MP Omingo Magara, former MPs Chris Obure, Zephaniah Anyieni and Joseph Kiangoi.
Others are former PS James Ongwae, economist Timothy Bosire, Chris Bichage and Nairobi lawyer Joseph Rioba and businessman George Anunda. Mr Odinga has literally pitched camp in Kisii since he declared his quest for the top seat. He has attended funerals, rallies and even campaigned for an ODM Kenya civic candidate in Bonchari constituency. The candidate, Mr Charles Lwanga Ongwae, emerged victorious beating a Ford People rival.
The Langata MP's supporters are exuding confidence that he will get majority votes from Kisii. On Monday, he will be in the area again as part of the homecoming tour after his nomination as the ODM presidential candidate. "We have hit the campaign trail. Mr Odinga and ODM have deep roots in this area and we shall deliver the votes to him," says Mr Bosire. According to Mr Anunda, a Nairobi businessman, for the first time Nyanza will vote as a bloc for Mr Odinga.
Of course this is disputed by the Kibaki and Musyoka camps. Roads minister Simeon Nyachae, the leader of Ford People, which swept the Kisii board in the 2002 elections when he contested the presidency, is this time leading the hunt for votes for Kibaki. Others in his corner are Planning minister Henry Obwocha, assistant minister Joel Onyancha, MPs Jimmy Angwenyi, Zebedeo Opore, Hezron Manduku, Stephen Manoti, Mwancha Okioma and Godfrey Masanya.
They are all banking on Mr Kibaki's development record. During the last four years, four major roads have been completed. They include the controversial Kisii-Chemosit, Keroka-Nyangusu, Nyamira-Senta roads. Work on the Kisii-Kilgoris road has started. Several other roads are lined up for tarmacking according to Mr Nyachae, the Roads minister. Mr Angwenyi, the Kitutu Chache MP, says Kisiis will overwhelmingly vote for Kibaki. "We have realised a lot of development and we shall continue benefiting if we re-elect the president," he says.
But those in the Odinga camp claim the roads were done during his tenure as Roads minister. Mr Odinga has himself said he was influential in the completion of the roads and he closely monitored the progress of the projects. In the 2005 referendum, the Orange team narrowly beat the President's Yes camp in Kisii. Mr Nyachae, who at one time, indicated that he would quit politics, later changed his mind and has promised to deliver the vote to President Kibaki in the General Election.
The Orange wave has been strong in the area since the referendum but it somehow weakened following the split between Mr Odinga and Mr Musyoka. Although many people think that Mr Musyoka was the biggest loser following the split, his handlers in the area are optimistic. They are promising a bruising battle. "We have not yet hit the road and when we will do so, people will see what we are made of," says Mr Dennis Abincha, a Nairobi lawyer and key Musyoka ally. He says Mr Musyoka is likely to pull a surprise. Others campaigning for Kalonzo are Mr Ben Momanyi, who is also a lawyer and former PS Zachary Ogongo. Mr Abincha, the ODM Kenya national deputy organising secretary, says: "He (Musyoka) is not tainted, he is likeable across the board and above all his vision for Kenya suits what the Omogusii needs in terms of agriculture and infrastructure. Those underrating us will be surprised. We shall win the presidential votes in many constituencies in Gusii."
One of the major issues the Nyachae team is harping on is the perceived betrayal by Mr Odinga in the 2002 elections. When Mr Nyachae was in the race for the presidency, Mr Odinga supported Kibaki with the famous Kibaki Tosha declaration at Uhuru Park just hours after a meeting with Mr Nyachae during which he is said to have pledged to back him.
So for the Nyachae team, it is pay back time for Odinga. This view is predominant especially among the old voters. "They are now talking about Nyanza unity, where was the unity when Nyachae sought the presidency in 2002?" asks Kitutu Chache MP Jimmy Angwenyi, a key Nyachae supporter. But the going will not be easy for the Panu alliance that Mr Kibaki unveiled last Sunday. One of the issues likely to complicate things for Panu is if the parties supporting it will field candidates.
With Kanu coming on board the Kibaki campaign, the situation is likely to be complicated even further. This is because in Kisii, the Kanu point man, Prof Sam Ongeri, does not see eye to eye with Mr Nyachae. Thus his entry may lead to rivalries within the Kibaki alliance that may cost it dearly during the elections. Mr Nyachae has in the past thrown barbs at other parties looking for a foothold in Kisii and wants the area zoned off for Ford People.
It will be interesting to see how he will work with Narc Kenya and Kanu leaders in campaigning for President Kibaki. If Panu affiliate parties are allowed to field candidates individually, Ford People MPs may feel threatened because some of the candidates of these parties may be more popular than them. But even more worrying is the fact that the pro-Kibaki parties will split the votes thus giving the opposition an advantage.
A lot of realignment is likely to emerge in Gusii as Mr Nyachae reorganises Ford-People for the battle ahead. The campaigners for President Kibaki, Mr Odinga and Mr Musyoka are taking the Kisii vote seriously. The Kisii vote consists of 33 per cent of the Nyanza vote. Mr Odinga is almost assured of his required 25 percent and even more from Nyanza but his campaigners are keen to deny President Kibaki the 25 percent he needs from the area. During a recent visit to the area, Education minister, Prof George Saitoti, implored the community to vote for Kibaki saying their vote counts a lot. "Your vote is very important to us (Kibaki team). From this area we depend on you." Prof Saitoti, one of the key leaders of Narc Kenya said.
Extensive tour
Mr Nyachae is keen to continue dominating Kisii politics and that is why he wants Ford People to remain vibrant. In his campaigns for President Kibaki, Mr Nyachae has on several occasions castigated Narc Kenya, Kanu, DP, ODM Kenya and ODM dismissing them as parties without a vision. Mr Odinga is on Monday expected to make an extensive tour of Nyamira district. He will tour Kitutu Masaba, West Mugirango and North Mugirango/Borabu constituencies. The biggest handicap for the parties may turn out to be voter apathy. During the 2002 General Elections less than 50 per cent of the registered voters turned up during the voting day. However, due to extensive voter education being carried out by a consortium of NGOs more voters are likely to turn up during the General Election.
