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The Man Nairobi Can't Ignore
Arrogant, dictatorial, overbearing, self-righteous, pushy. Or maybe just an efficient, successful, driven, hard-working taskmaster who does not suffer fools gladly.
Whatever one thinks of Mr Simeon Nyachae, one cannot afford to ignore the man.
When it became clear that the former finance minister was launching a presidential bid on a minor-party ticket after giving up on his bid in Kanu, the first question asked was whether he would be able to transcend his appeal beyond his Kisii homeland.
That was a legitimate question. Apart from President Moi of Kanu, no other presidential candidate since the return of multi-partyism has been able to significantly transcend the ethnic barrier. Mr Kenneth Matiba (Ford Asili), Mr Mwai Kibaki (Democratic Party) and Mr Oginga Odinga (Ford Kenya) all recorded impressive tallies in 1992. In 1997 it was Mr Kibaki and Mr Raila Odinga (National Development Party) as well as Mr Kijana Wamalwa (Ford Kenya) and Mrs Charity Ngilu (Social Development Party). But for each the bulk of their votes came from single ethnic groups.
Mr Nyachae, no doubt will dominate the Kisii vote as significantly as Mr Kibaki and Mr Raila Odinga dominated, respectively, the Kikuyu and Luo votes in 1997. But Mr Kibaki for instance, had a captive basket of well over 1.5 million votes, while Raila Odinga was looking to a million.
In that year the presidential vote in the three Kisii districts was split almost evenly between President Moi and Mr Kibaki the latter having a slight lead.
In total, the Kisii vote (not counting the diaspora) barely scrapped the 300,000 mark. Even assuming a total Kisii vote of 500,000 at the next election, that will be only enough to make Mr Nyachae worth noting but no real threat to any of the serious contenders, except perhaps as a spoiler.
Thus Mr Nyachae's entire game plan must be based on breaching the ethic barrier and extending his appeal across the country.
He of course started with the disadvantage of entering the fray on what was to all extents and purposes an entirely new outfit. But, already, it is clear that Ford People is bound to make a national impact.
One thing Mr Nyachae has never hidden is his ambition and drive. When President Moi persuaded him to stick with Kanu ahead of the 1992 elections, it was believed that Mr Nyachae had been promised, eventually, the vice presidency and ultimately first choice on the presidential succession.
It was not to be. Not too long after the 1992 polls, Mr Nyachae had emerged as leader of a group within Kanu pressing for party polls in order to bring fresh faces in the top echelons. The group, which came to be Christened Kanu "A" was comprised of diverse figures including cabinet ministers Musalia Mudavadi, Kipkalya Kones and William ole Ntimama; noisy Kanu rebel MPs such as Mr Cyrus Jirongo, Mr Kipruto arap Kirwa and Kamba trio of Col (Rtd) Ronald Kiluta, Mr Peter Maundu and the late Tony Ndilinge. Also associated with the group was Thika Kanu branch chairman Uhuru Kenyatta who was just starting to make his play for higher stakes.
Ranged against them were the incumbents, Kanu "B", who included the Kanu hawkish wing comprised of figures such as Vice President George Saitoti, Kanu secretary-general Joseph Kamotho and cabinet Nicholas Biwott.
Things have changed a great deal since then. Nyachae is only nominally in Kanu. He gave up the fight for position within Kanu after being transferred from the Ministry of Finance in 1999.
Kanu, in the verge of merging with Mr Raila Odinga's National Development Party, is itself is in the throes of a major power struggle that cold result in the death knell for the ruling party.
Uhuru Kenyatta, since nominated to parliament, and Mr Jirongo are in the cabinet as part of the group of so-called Young Turks, Mr Mudavadi included, primed to shunt the Saitoti-Kamotho axis aside. The Young Turks are also fighting amongst themselves over the presidential succession with Mr Kenyatta coming in to leapfrog over Mr Mudavadi, who is also being fought on home ground by Mr Jirongo. Mr Biwott, after watching from the sidelines, has bounced back with gusto and is positioning himself to play a principal roe on the post-Moi era.
And Ford People, with only three MPs to its name and at least two of them waiting to shift to the DP, has elbowed its way into the ranks of major parties.
The party was formed by Mr Kimani wa Nyoike in the run-up to the 1997 elections as a safety net in case those loyal to Mr Kenneth Matiba lost control of Ford Asili to Mr Martin Shikuku. The impetuous Mr Matiba rejected the party, and even the general elections, and Ford People remained a small outfit.
It's three elected MP are Messrs John Michuki (Kangema), Maina Njakwe (Mathioya) and Waithaka Mwangi (Kinangop), but none of them are exactly paid-up members of the Nyachae fan club.
So how did Mr Nyachae come to virtually take over the party? He had been in the hunt for an existing party for quiet a while, having decided early on that it would be futile to try and register an entirely new outfit.
After contacts with the Shirikisho Party of Kenya and other smaller outfits went nowhere, Ford People made itself available. As a party with no structures, no active officials, little or no contacts with its MPs and built around one man, it would not have been too difficult to strike a deal.
Kimani wa Nyoike, the flamboyant, bow-tied former MP for Kinangop, now on hard times, and Mr Nyachae made for strange bedfellows. For most of the past ten years, Mr Nyoike's activities in opposition circles had centred on pushing an ethnic (Kikuyu) agenda. Mr Nyachae, a the time he was trying to ingratiate himself fully into the Kanu system, was not above coming out with a strongly anti-Kikuyu stance.
Nevertheless, the two struck a deal. Always a stickler for procedure and keen to secure his interest, Mr Nyachae's first move was to ensure that his key allies got posts in the Ford People executive committee. This was done as early as the end of 2000 by a resolution of the Ford People delegates conference - really a one-man show - the registrar of societies was duly notified.
It was not until some four months layer when Mr Reuben Oyondi, Dr Hezron Manduku and Mr Nyachae's mother Mama Pamela Bosibori openly decamped to Ford People that the public got an inkling of what was going on. Mr Oyondi was by then already registered as the Party national vice chairman while other Nyachae loyalists had been brought in to take nearly half the post in an expanded executive committee.
From then on was all all-systems go. Apart from in Kisii and Mr Nyoike's efforts in parts of Central Province, early indication of Ford People going out to recruit members and establish offices was witnessed in Bomett and Kericho districts where Mr Kones was actively proselytising amongst the Kipsigis people.
But, more quietly, Mr Nyachae was reaching out to politicians across the country, both in opposition areas and even in traditional Kanu strongholds.
He appears, so far, set to penetrate quite a chunk of Kanu territory, with his supporters talking confidently of gains in North Eastern Province, Coast, parts of Eastern province and even swathes of the Rift Valley Kanu strongholds.
It remains to be seen how the efforts of Kones in Kericho and Bomett, and a network of agents in the Nandi areas in Nandi and Uasin Gishu district will work out. Two leading opposition activists in the Kanu heartland, Mr Jackson Kibor and Mr Kipkorir arap Menjo, are laying the groundwork for a major push in Nandi and Uasin Gishu. Rebel Kanu MP Kipruto arap Kirwa, who had earlier indicated a shift to the DP, is being assiduously wooed.
In Maasailand, Narok, Transmara and Kajiado district, Ford People is being talked of as the next best alternative to Kanu. Though he denies any such intentions, cabinet minister William ole Ntimama, the self-proclaimed Maasai spokesman, leaves no doubt that if "pushed" out of Kanu, he will consider his options. Currently under pressure, Mr Ntimama has for a long time been allied to Mr Nyachae and there is no doubt where he would go.
At the Coast, Ford People is trying to displace the DP as the main opposition party, and has even been trying to enlist the MP for Kisauni Mr Karissa Maitha. It has also been trying to penetrate the activists circles associated with Mr Khelef Khalifa and the groupings that used to be associated with the Islamic Party of Kenya.
While entering into an electoral pact with the Safina party of Mr Paul Muite and Mr Maalim Farrah, and landing Mr Gitobu Imanyara from Ford Kenya has so far generated the most headlines, Ford People officials insist that the biggest news is yet to come.
Mr Nyachae, it is known, has been consulting widely with many senior figures in Kanu. He must be keenly aware that in whatever fashion the ruing party resolves its presidential succession headache, there is bound to be a major fallout. He is waiting with open arms to pick up the pieces.
The game plan, basically, calls for Ford People to solidly entrench itself across the country as a legitimate opposition party at par with the DP, and then provide a haven for those who may flee Kanu but would have no truck with the DP.
One thing that is clear to all those who may be joining Ford People is that there is no question over the Presidential candidacy.
Often accused of being a lone ranger after rejecting overtures to join the Kibaki-Wamalwa-Ngilu Alliance for Change, Mr Nyachae instead prefers to project himself as a focused and practical politician who has no time to waste with deceptive manoeuvres, such as the elusive search for a single opposition candidate, that will never come to fruition.
He can, indeed, come across as overbearing and arrogant when he dismisses other opposition contenders and their unity efforts. But he is determined to make a stab at the presidency, and will not waste time in futile search for a single candidate.
While his supporters exude confidence that Mr Nyachae is set to provide the main challenge to whoever Kanu puts up, some of the enthusiasm seems based on over-confidence. They talk confidently, for instance, of having made inroads into swathes of Central Kenya. When push comes to shove, that is a vote that is unlikely to go to Mr Nyachae. They also talk of Ford People winning the majority of the Kalenjin vote with President Moi's exit. That might be dangerous self-delusion.
Even talk of eating deeply into Raila Odinga's Luo Nyanza strongholds seems utterly misplaced.
If not careful, Mr Nyachae might fall into the trap that has consumed many a politician. While he has put together an enthusiastic campaign team comprising a mix of hardened politicians, youthful idealists and policy advisors, there are also a lot fawning sycophants ready to convince him that the elections are his for the taking.
There is the perception that Mr Nyachae's campaign has inexhaustible funds at its disposal. Hence some rather wild stories finding their way in the alternative press about how he has imported 300 top-of-the-range land rovers and a fleet of light aircraft and helicopters for his campaign.
Such perceptions attract all kinds of characters out for some easy money. It does not help that Nyachae makes it clear Ford People is pen to all-comers. When asked if his stated vision and ideals can accommodate the likes of Ntimama and Kones (identified with ethnic clashes), Muite (tarred by his association with Kamlesh Pattni of the Goldenberg scandal) or Imanyara (he was consorting with Kanu until recently), Nyachae's stock response (see interview) is that those not in Ford People have no business offering unsolicited advise. He also says that anyway it is the party membership that will vote for the best nominees.
It might be useful to learn from the lessons of the Opposition. When the original Ford was founded, all sorts of disreputable characters jumped aboard. Now, ten years later, a major weakness of all opposition parties is that none retains the moral high ground which provided advantage over Kanu.
It might be argued that Mr Nyachae is strong and solid enough to make his own imprint on Ford People and ensure everybody toes the line. But nowhere is the Nyachae Doctrine written in stone. A five years down the line the party leadership could have changed considerably. And all that Mr Nyachae espouses thrown out of the window. That would not matter if Ford People was merely vehicle through which Mr Nyachae could pursue his presidential ambitions.
