2002 Elections
Which Way the Kenya People's Coalition?
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- Published on Thursday, 19 July 2007 01:54
This is how Mbita MP Otieno Kajwang puts it: "If I were Nyachae, I would join the fray before it is too late."
But what many analysts have not considered is that Nyachae has already put in a lot of resources in his quest for the Presidency. Could this be the real reason why he was so persistent about having a nomination process that did not lock him out of the race at the onset?
Nyachae: Which way will he go?
Some political commentators say Nyachae's insistence on a "democratic" nomination process just does not wash. After all, he became the Ford-P presidential torch bearer without going through the rigours of the primary he was insisting on for Narc.
To be fair to the son of Nyandusi, as Nyachae is occasionally referred to, the selection of Mwai Kibaki as the joint opposition presidential candidate has always been on the cards ever since Raila Odinga famously asked the crowd at Uhuru Park whether he (Kibaki) was capable of leading.
But then, there is the question of the national mood and the fact that important segments of the opposition have already thrown their lot with Kibaki. Thus, the adamant position taken by Nyachae seems to have helped steep long-held stereotypes about him as an arrogant lone-ranger who hardly plays ball with others.
And although it seems the Ford-P presidential hopeful has not burned all bridges and could still mend fences with Narc, the possibility of Nyachae going it alone cannot be dispelled.
The question observers would like answered in the eventuality that Nyachae goes to the polls alone is: What will he count on in terms of numbers.
It is clear that Nyachae can only count on his bedrock support among the Kisii in this highly ethnicised nation.
In Kisii and Kurialand, Nyachae will be trying to hoard as many of the 557,075 votes spread within Kuria, Gucha and Nyamira districts as possible. But don't forget that Kanu has always had a respectable following in this area and the party still has strong campaigners in the names of Sam Ongeri and Chris Obure.
However, Nyachae would still have made a substantial contribution to the united opposition, given that he can wrest most of these votes from Kanu.
What is clear is that the man from Kisiiland will hardly make much impact elsewhere in the country, as most of the other areas will be locked in more definite voting patterns.
On the other hand, the opposition collected a generous number of votes from Kisii in both 1992 and 1997 from the area despite the fact that Nyachae was always on the ground as President Moi's point man. In the last General Election, George Moseti Anyona reclaimed his Kitutu Masaba seat on a Kenya Social Congress ticket, Henry Obwocha retained the West Mugirango seat on a Ford-K ticket and the late Enoch Magara won the South Mugirango seat. Could it be that there is a certain opposition element in these seats that Nyachae will be well advised to put in mind?
While Anyona has kept the anti-Nyachae fire burning, James Magara, who took over his brother's seat in a by-election, and Obwocha have converted to Nyachae followers. Their sticking with Nyachae throughout the electoral period will boost his chances of locking out other contestants from fishing too successfully in his stronghold. However, should some of Nyachae's current supporters change tune and start dancing to the beats of Narc or Kanu, Nyachae would be up against a tide.
As the 1997 presidential election results show, Mwai Kibaki is capable of netting more votes in Kisiiland than President Moi. Pundits hold that this could well mean that Nyachae did not necessarily have the last word on how people voted at the presidential level.
An the national front, the support he has been drumming up in Eastern Province, especially through Kibwezi MP Onesmus Mboko and Mutomo MP Kithusi Kitonga may have been whittled down by the fact that both Ngilu and Kalonzo Musyoka have agreed to do Kibaki's spade work in Ukambani.
In the Meru areas of the province, the fact that Mathews Adams Karauri has beaten a retreat back to the Rainbow Alliance while Gitobu Imanyara is no longer consistently on the Nyachae campaign trail means Ford-P will have vastly reduced stature there.
And with the walking out of Kenneth Kiliku and Paul Muite, can Nyachae really talk of a countrywide network that can translate into meaningful votes come the polling day?
It would appear that by pulling out of Narc, he has much more to lose than the alliance. What should worry him even more is talk among some key Alliance figures to the effect that in fact they feel better off without him. Considering his style of doing things and his abrasive personality, he had taken to the Alliance greater propensity for squabbling which they are now rid of.
