How different two constituent en-claves of one province can be? It is former Nyanza PC, now crusading against drug abuse, Joseph Kaguthi, who popularised the term Luo-Nyanza. Logically therefore, there is such a thing as Kisii- or Gusii-Nyanza and Kuria-Nyanza.

In the past, Kisiiland has in comparison to Luoland remained the backwater of the province when region-wide politicking is considered. Perhaps, it is because of the latter’s numerical superiority over the latter. Could it be that the Kisii have not produced a leader to the stature of Jaramogi Oginga Odinga. . . that is until this exciting transition year?

Be that as it may, this time round, Kisii-Nyanza is set to be the rallying point for one of its own - Simeon Nyachae - contesting the Presidency on a Ford-People ticket. It only took the declaration of interest in the top seat by Nyachae for the fortunes of otherwise well-esteemed politicians to come down tumbling. On the one hand, Nyachae will be looking to make a kill at home as a prerequisite to gaining sufficient votes elsewhere to romp home as Kenya’s third State House occupant. On the other hand, ministers Sam Ongeri and Chris Obure will be presented by the governing party as living examples of Kanu’s commitment to the best interests of the community.

When Nyachae loudly parted ways with the current government over what he considered a demotion from the Ministry of Finance Kisiiland started experiencing the birth pangs of delivery into opposition politics. As the clock ticks away to the crucial December 27 date, the Ongeri-Obure axis will face off with the Nyachae camp over the about half-a-million registered voters in the area. Given Nyachae’s steadfastness in holding on particular thought lines, it is a foregone conclusion that he will not bend over backwards to negotiate with Narc.

And though pundits have placed him third after either Kibaki or Uhuru Kenyatta, it would seem that Nyachae’s resolve to have a go at the Presidency is a cut and dry matter, whether or not he wins. In any case, those close to him say that at his 70 years of age, immense resource endowment and stringent loyalty to idiosyncratic thought patterns, Nyachae is not for the turning. Narc leaders are however miffed that Nyachae does not see things their way; namely that his bringing in the Kisii vote would crown the victory they are seeking over Project Uhuru. The feeling is that by denying both Kanu and Narc the rich and unilaterally inclined vote bank, Nyachae will be playing more into the hands of Kanu.

As it is therefore, Nyachae is being viewed more or less as a living testimony of the opposition’s incapability to speak with one voice as was the case during the 1992 and the 1997 elections. Kanu strategists in the area might not yet be sitting on their laurels and rub their hands together in glee over Nyachae’s perceived splintering of the opposition vote. The Kanu campaign machine is likely to go into an overdrive as witnessed by the elevation of Joseph Kiangoi to the crucial position of Kanu legal affairs secretary on top of the ministerial position he holds. The North Mugirango MP will be battling it out with Nairobi lawyer Jared Mwau - an ironical name if you consider that former anti-corruption tsar Haroun Mwau was appointed Kanu vice chairman alongside Kiangoi.

Kiangoi will have it uphill going, given that Nyamira district where he hails from has the other two seats: South Mugirango and West Mugirango held by two important opposition politicians, James Magara and Henry Obwocha respectively. The duo went to Parliament in 1997 on a Ford Kenya ticket, a demonstration that even with Nyachae leading the Kanu campaign in the area, it was still possible for the opposition to save face. Looking at Kiangoi’s elevation in the party carefully yields the fact that he will be leading the Kanu campaign in Nyamira district while Obure will be pulling all stops in Gucha district and Ongeri will be holding the bull by the horns in Kisii district. Thanks perhaps to the work of DP Organising Secretary, George Nyamweya, Kibaki’s party performed impressively coming close to Moi’s in the area. Narc will perhaps be praying for a repeat of the same.

It would appear the strategy that Narc is taking in its campaign to redeem or even claim Kisiiland is to put Nyachae on the offensive. Several times, Narc luminaries, including respected Moody Awori and motor-mouthed Joseph Kamotho, have pushed Nyachae into a corner with claims that he is a Kanu mole in the opposition bent on scattering the opposition vote. Against such allegations and by the massed politicos in Kanu, Nyachae will be hard put to launch tirades against his nemesis. Should this message sink home in the area, the possibility of Ford-People being in Narc by default cannot be dispelled.

This could be through the voting for Ford-People parliamentary candidates while swinging the presidential vote to a Narc or Kanu candidate. On the other hand, Kanu seems to be employing the ploy of ignoring Nyachae and proceeding on as if he does not exist in the first place. Whether or not the Kanu backroom calculators stick with this approach remains to be seen. What cannot be disputed is that Kisiiland is about to witness one of its most turbulent campaigns yet.